I observed lately that there aren’t many things that I’ve tried ten or more times. Ten is low enough to be reasonable, but is high enough that it takes some intention to get to.

For example: I estimate that over my life I’ve baked 6 pies: 2 blueberry, 2 apple, and 2 pumpkin (arguably a tart). This was surprising to me, since I consider myself a casual yet decent baker of pies. Decent enough for people to approach me after a potluck for my recipe.

I also consider myself a decent eater of pies. Even there, I estimate a lifetime total of having tried ten individual pies (including pumpkin, excluding cheesecake).1

Doing a thing once a year will take you a decade to do ten times. Even once a week will take a few months to hit ten times. Despite my enthusiasm for pie production (and consumption), it being largely limited to Thanksgiving has suppressed my pie stats. Meanwhile, professional bakers are probably churning through thousands of pies a year.

Ten is different

My observation leads to a natural conclusion: if you want to take something seriously, commit to doing it ten times.

After ten times, you will have done way more than “tourists” who have tried it once. You will have done more than once a year “casuals”, even if they’ve done it for years.

Another data point: the viewership of the math lectures I’m working through.

Assuming (!) that most viewers are watching sequentially, only 28% of the first lecture viewers watch the second lecture. By the 10th lecture, most of the viewers that will drop off have gone, with 4% left. Only 3% watch last lecture!

I’m on lecture 6, a group where 20-45% finish the course.

Distributionally, doing things ten times means you are closer to the experts than the tourists. Watching ten lectures means you have more in common with the completionists, as 80% of lecture 10 viewers complete the course.

A public commitment

Staying committed is a differentiator, especially when fall off is steep, and it often is. 2

This post (10th on this blog) is my public commitment to start doing things ten times. Starting with four more pies.

  1. This is individual pies tried, not kinds of pies tried. Why distinct-pies-tried? I think it gets best at the heart of the matter of what we care about. Better than slices, since it is easy to eat multiple slices in one sitting. Better than volumes of entire pie consumer, since pies are meant to be shared. I considered days-where-pie-was-eaten, but most pies at home are picked at over a long period. Cumulatively, I think I have eaten much more than ten slices of pie, on more than ten days, but much less than ten pies-volumes of pie. ↩

  2. Theoretically, retention is often log-normal, the limit distribution of multiplying random variables. ↩